Seventy Percent of Economies Are Underprepared for AI Disruption

AI is already transforming industries and starting to reshape economies and is poised to profoundly shape the future of economic development over the next few years. The expansive scale of this growth makes AI an economic priority in every region around the globe. However, new Boston Consulting Group (BCG) research has established that most economies are underprepared for AI-driven disruption. The study, released today, shows that over 70% of the economies studied score below average in critical areas such as ecosystem participation, skills, and research and development.

BCG’s AI Maturity Matrix offers a comprehensive overview of the AI landscape across 73 economies by focusing on two pivotal aspects. First, it assesses each economy’s vulnerability to AI-driven shifts, such as job displacement and industrywide productivity gains. Second, it evaluates the preparedness of each economy to navigate the risks associated with AI, while leveraging its potential to stimulate economic growth. The report then offers recommendations tailored to the different groups to guide policymakers and provides an interactive dashboard for a more detailed exploration of the analysis.

“This first-of-its-kind study offers a broad view of global adoption, revealing that while most economies are gradually embracing AI, a small influential group of pioneers is emerging as global leaders,” said Christian Schwaerzler, a BCG managing director, partner, chair of BCG’s Center for Public Economics, and coauthor of the report. “This handful of leading markets stands to gain significant economic advantages and is uniquely positioned to shape how humanity will engage with this transformative technology.”

According to the report, there are six sectors that are most exposed to AI-driven change: information and communication, high-tech goods, retail, financial services, public services, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Economies with a high share of sectors that are most exposed to AI are among the world’s most exposed to disruption. These include Luxembourg (with financial services making up almost 30% of GDP), Hong Kong (22% financial services and 22% business services), and Singapore (18% business services, 16% retail, 14% financial services).

Economies with industry sectors that are less susceptible to AI disruption are less exposed. Such sectors include construction, agriculture, and furniture manufacturing; countries include Indonesia (13% agriculture and 11% construction of GDP), India (17% agriculture and 8% construction), and Ethiopia (36% agriculture).

Measuring AI Readiness Using the ASPIRE Index

“Readiness” for AI refers to an economy’s ability to effectively implement and integrate AI. The study measures readiness across the six dimensions that make up BCG’s ASPIRE index: Ambition, Skills, Policy and regulation, Investment, Research and innovation, and Ecosystem. Of the 73 economies assessed, only five—categorized as AI pioneers—have achieved a high level of readiness. Pioneers are also out in front in skills, R&D (research and development), ecosystems, and investments. In skills, the US and Singapore stand out with robust AI talent pools, crucial for driving innovation. The US leads in investing, driven by its sophisticated capital markets and the abundance of AI unicorns. In the R&D race, Mainland China is leading in patents and AI academic papers.